The Importance of Evidence

A place to get your questions answered from McDougall staff dietitian, Jeff Novick, MS, RDN.

Moderators: JeffN, carolve, Heather McDougall

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Wed Jan 14, 2015 4:50 pm

John Ioannidis on Moving Toward Truth in Scientific Research
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KOZAV9A ... e=youtu.be

In this short video, PLOS author John Ioannidis, Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy, and of Statistics at Stanford University, considers how the scientific community can move toward greater truth in published research. Ioannidis is the author of two widely read articles published in PLOS Medicine:


Why Most Published Research Findings Are False
http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a ... ed.0020124

This influential article surpassed one million views in April 2014, the first PLOS article to achieve this milestone.


How to Make More Published Research True
http://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/a ... ed.1001747

Ioannidis’ most recent essay is number 50 in the Altmetric 2014 Top 100, a review of academic research articles receiving the most attention online this year.
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Thu Mar 05, 2015 9:45 pm

Why We Doubt Scientific Findings
The Diane Rehm Show
Wednesday, Mar 04 2015 • 11 a.m. (ET)

http://thedianerehmshow.org/shows/2015- ... c-findings

We live in an age in which science and technology pervade our lives like never before. Yet, over the last several years Americans have become increasingly skeptical of scientific findings, especially when it comes to hot button issues like climate change, vaccines and genetically modified food. In a recent survey of U.S. scientists, only half said it is a good time for science. Some blame politics. They argue that research is being held hostage by ideology. Others say the growing complexity of our world makes us cling to our beliefs, even when confronted with evidence that demonstrates the contrary. Why many Americans doubt science and how scientists can better communicate their findings.

Guests

Kathleen Hall Jamieson - professor of communication at the Annenberg School for Communication and the director of the Annenberg Policy Center at the University of Pennsylvania, home of factcheck.org's SciCheck which flags misuses of science in political debates

Joel Achenbach - science reporter at The Washington Post and author of National Geographic magazine's March cover story, "The War on Science."

Dr. Marcia McNutt - editor-in-chief of the journal Science and former director of the U.S. Geologic Surve


Why Do Many Reasonable People Doubt Science?
We live in an age when all manner of scientific knowledge—from climate change to vaccinations—faces furious opposition.Some even have doubts about the moon landing.
By Joel Achenbach

http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/2015/ ... nbach-text
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Fri Mar 06, 2015 7:18 am

It's worse then we thought....


1) Science vs Conspiracy: Collective Narratives in the Age of Misinformation
Alessandro Bessi, Mauro Coletto, George Alexandru Davidescu, Antonio Scala, Guido Caldarelli, Walter Quattrociocchi. PLoS ONE 10(2): e0118093. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0118093

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/articl ... ne.0118093

Abstract
The large availability of user provided contents on online social media facilitates people aggregation around shared beliefs, interests, worldviews and narratives. In spite of the enthusiastic rhetoric about the so called collective intelligence unsubstantiated rumors and conspiracy theories—e.g., chemtrails, reptilians or the Illuminati—are pervasive in online social networks (OSN). In this work we study, on a sample of 1.2 million of individuals, how information related to very distinct narratives—i.e. main stream scientific and conspiracy news—are consumed and shape communities on Facebook. Our results show that polarized communities emerge around distinct types of contents and usual consumers of conspiracy news result to be more focused and self-contained on their specific contents. To test potential biases induced by the continued exposure to unsubstantiated rumors on users’ content selection, we conclude our analysis measuring how users respond to 4,709 troll information—i.e. parodistic and sarcastic imitation of conspiracy theories. We find that 77.92% of likes and 80.86% of comments are from users usually interacting with conspiracy stories.


2) Digital Wildfires in a Hyperconnected World
World Economic Forum

http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks ... ted-world/

The global risk of massive digital misinformation sits at the centre of a constellation of technological and geopolitical risks ranging from terrorism to cyber attacks and the failure of global governance. This risk case examines how hyperconnectivity could enable “digital wildfires” to wreak havoc in the real world. It considers the challenge presented by the misuse of an open and easily accessible system and the greater danger of misguided attempts to prevent such outcomes.


3) “Social Media Risk Is Like Wildfire. Where's the Fire Engine?” Moreno, K. Forbes, 8/07/2012

http://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesinsig ... re-engine/

"Social media is already recognized as the fourth-largest source of risk over the next three years, according to a recent report from Deloitte and Forbes Insights, “Aftershock: Adjusting to the New World of Risk Management.” This puts social media on par with financial risk."
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Sat Mar 28, 2015 8:28 am

I was discussing this issue of all the CRAP that gets circulated these days as news with a colleague and how I thought it was actually worse now and it is making it harder then ever for the average person to know what really matters. I sent them a link to this thread.

Here was their response...

“Yes, I totally agree with you. I have said to colleagues recently that when I first started my career the worst things we had to deal with we had to deal with was the annual fad diet book and the few supplement pushers. But when a diet book came out, it would get some initial press and within 6 months, it was old news and everyone had moved on. Now it never dies nor do any sensational stories about studies that are misrepresented in the media or just plain bad studies to begin with. They continue to be passed along, quoted in blogs and articles and links posted on social media. Even studies that have been discredited and withdrawn from journals live on. It is exhausting to try to deal with this day after day."

Amen!

In Health
Jeff
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Sun Apr 26, 2015 6:51 pm

Image
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Wed May 27, 2015 7:12 pm

Beware Spurious Correlations - Don't Be Fooled By Parlor Tricks
Harvard Business Review
June 2015

We all know the truism “Correlation doesn’t imply causation,” but when we see lines sloping together, bars rising together, or points on a scatterplot clustering, the data practically begs us to assign a reason. We want to believe one exists.

Statistically we can’t make that leap, however. Charts that show a close correlation are often relying on a visual parlor trick to imply a relationship. Tyler Vigen, a JD student at Harvard Law School and the author of Spurious Correlations, has made sport of this on his website, which charts farcical correlations—for example, between U.S. per capita margarine consumption and the divorce rate in Maine.

Read the full article here..
https://hbr.org/2015/06/beware-spurious-correlations
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Sun Jun 14, 2015 10:21 am

The Science News Cycle

Image

My response to it...

Today's Breaking Health News
http://www.jeffnovick.com/RD/Articles/E ... ews!!.html

And, this entire discussion thread :)

In Health
Jeff
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Wed Jun 24, 2015 4:15 am

Statistics & Risk

"This is a reference for all of us who promptly forgot Statistics after taking the test in school. Statistics is the toolbox for scientific research. Skeptical doctors need to have at least a fundamental understanding of the following concepts in order to interpret the medical literature."

https://sites.google.com/site/skeptical ... s-and-risk
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Wed Jul 01, 2015 12:02 pm

Sadly, this is happening both within the WFPB movement, and the movement is being influenced by those doing this outside the movement.

Medscape Business of Medicine - Ethics: Today's Hot Topics
Are Evil People Influencing Your Patients?
Arthur L. Caplan, PhD
Disclosures June 24, 2015

http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/845 ... ir&spon=17

Hi. I am Art Caplan, from the New York University Langone Medical Center Division of Medical Ethics in New York City.

If you were to draw up a list of who belongs in Dante's Seventh Circle of Hell, you might put in some of your enemies. You might put in certain athletes that play for teams you don't like. But I have another candidate for you: Belle Gibson.

Belle, an Australian woman somewhere in her 20s (she doesn't even tell the truth about that), had a very active website where she claimed that she had beaten multiple forms of cancer by eating right and living healthy. She had an app you could download to tell you how to do this; she had a cookbook that told you what to eat; and she had hundreds of thousands of followers on Facebook, Instagram, and other social media sites who took her very seriously.

But Belle did not have cancer and she was full of malarkey. Her diets were not based on anything of value. It is not even clear that she herself followed her diets. In fact, she was a complete fraud. The reason I say she belongs in the Seventh Circle of Hell is that she led many people to believe they could beat cancer by eating what she said to eat. There is no evidence that you can get rid of cancer through your diet. Certainly, she deceived people into spending a lot of money on her books and dietary advice, and she persuaded a lot of people that the way to fight disease is to breathe healthy air and live a healthy lifestyle, which is not a bad thing to tell patients, but it is not good to tell patients that this will fight cancer.

She appears at a time when we are struggling to decide what to do about misinformation on the Internet. Many others, such as the Food Babe, who has been touting all kinds of healthy diet stuff, and even the much maligned Dr. Oz, who has been selling quick-fix solutions to obesity, are telling people that there are magic beans and super-duper extracts that can solve all manner of health problems.

Time to Point Patients to Reputable Internet Advice

It is time for doctors to get into this with their patients. You need to ask them what they are looking at on social media. Find out how they have changed their lifestyles and whether they are using supplements or taking things you should know about. Then you should challenge them by noting that, more and more, we are finding out that what looks good and easy and simple is not, and those who use social media and the Internet to tout these "cures" to make a buck are not where you should go for trusted information.

Physicians need to know where to send patients for reliable information. Know the websites, find out about social media so that you can say, "Here is a vetted source from the American Cancer Society or the American Medical Association (or other expert professional groups) to help you deal with diseases." Do not leave your patients hanging, relying on whatever it is that pops up in the top 10 Google searches.

The Internet is a powerful tool. We are not going to censor it. We are not going to shut it down. But I believe that medicine has to adapt to and address it. The case of Belle Gibson shows that if we do not do that, a lot of harm may come of it.

I am Art Caplan, from the Division of Medical Ethics at the NYU Langone Medical Center. Thanks for watching.
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Wed Jul 08, 2015 7:27 pm

How Do You Know Which Health Care Effectiveness Research You Can Trust? A Guide to Study Design for the Perplexed
EDITOR’S CHOICE — Volume 12 — June 25, 2015

Prev Chronic Dis 2015;12:150187. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5888/pcd12.150187.

http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2015/15_0187.htm

MEDSCAPE CME

Medscape, LLC is pleased to provide online continuing medical education (CME) for this journal article, allowing clinicians the opportunity to earn CME credit.

This activity has been planned and implemented in accordance with the Essential Areas and policies of the Accreditation Council for Continuing Medical Education through the joint providership of Medscape, LLC and Preventing Chronic Disease. Medscape, LLC is accredited by the ACCME to provide continuing medical education for physicians.

Medscape, LLC designates this Journal-based CME activity for a maximum of 1 AMA PRA Category 1 Credit(s)™. Physicians should claim only the credit commensurate with the extent of their participation in the activity.

All other clinicians completing this activity will be issued a certificate of participation. To participate in this journal CME activity: (1) review the learning objectives and author disclosures; (2) study the education content; (3) take the post-test with a 75% minimum passing score and complete the evaluation at http://www.medscape.org/journal/pcd; (4) view/print certificate.

Learning Objectives

Upon completion of this activity, participants will be able to:

- Define healthy user bias in health care research and means to reduce it

- Assess means to reduce selection bias in health care research

- Assess how to overcome confounding factors by indication in health care research

- Evaluate social desirability bias and history bias in health care research
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Mon Aug 10, 2015 9:15 am

Some alternative medicine journals should be de-listed
Edzard Ernst, MD, PhD, FMedSci, FSB, FRCP, FRCPEd
Emeritus Professor, Exeter University
Published Thursday 30 July 2015

http://edzardernst.com/2015/07/some-alt ... de-listed/

Highlights:

- Around 80% of the articles that currently get published on alternative medicine are useless rubbish. They tend to be either preclinical investigations which never get followed up and are thus meaningless, or surveys of no relevance whatsoever, or pilot studies that never are succeeded by more definitive trials, or non-systematic reviews that are wide open to bias and can only mislead the reader.

- The number of Medline-listed articles increased gradually from 335 in the year 2000 to 610 in 2010, but exploded to 1189 in 2011, 1674 in 2012, and 2236 in 2013.

- The journal Evidence-Based Complementary and Alternative Medicine, which published approximately half of the new articles, charges authors for publication and lacks an appropriate peer-review process.

- Alternative medicine is ill-advised and short-sighted to settle for standards that are so clearly below those generally deemed acceptable in medicine. Similarly, conventional medicine does a serious disfavor to progress and to us all, if it ignores or tolerates this process.

- In the short-term, it might help if Medline de-listed journals that are in obvious conflict with publication ethics.
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Mon Aug 31, 2015 6:21 pm

Image
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Wed Sep 09, 2015 5:49 am

Ten Questions to Ask about Scientific Studies
By Jeremy Adam Smith
September 8, 2015

http://greatergood.berkeley.edu/article ... ic_studies
Never take a study at face value, including one you read about in Greater Good!


In Health
Jeff
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Thu Oct 01, 2015 9:51 am

A great article by David Katz, MD. While we may differ somewhat on the fine details of the dietary pattern we recommend, he really nails some key issues in this article.

He really highlights the importance of the perspective that I keep stressing in this forum about how science really works, about the problems created by the current social media driven information overload and the never ending stream of breaking health news, which I cover in my discussion on "breaking health news" & in this thread on "the importance of evidence." You will also notice the same similarity between his comments in his article on saturated fat and sugars, and my discussions on those topics too.

These are very real and serious problems and are no better if and when they come from the WFBP/Vegan world either.

Thanks David!

In Health
Jeff

Sugar and Saturated Fat: Feeding the Parasites of Science
David Katz, MD
October 1, 2015

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/8227088

"Science doesn't work this way; it is about the incremental additions of each new study to what we knew before. It requires uncertainty, and allows for mistakes- even as it allows for us to know enough. We can act based on what we know about nutrition, and despite our doubts, to do enormous good; just as we can act, based on what we know of physics and despite our many doubts, to bounce radio waves off of orbiting satellites, and beam electrons through cyberspace.

But between us and that opportunity are the parasites of science who have no apparent interest in the weight of evidence, and instead feed selectively on studies depending on whether they endorse the opinion they've already decided is true. You will find them out here every day, in close quarters with the fools and fanatics, busily reTweeting one another's absolutes. They are a greater peril to us all than either saturated fat or sugar."
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

Re: The Importance of Evidence

Postby JeffN » Tue Oct 13, 2015 10:02 am

I thought this quote accurately describes a huge part of the problem today in news reporting, regardless of the medium

“Too much of the media looks upon their goal as giving the public what it wants. The television networks do it because they are desperately trying to hold on to an audience, and the way to hold on to an audience is to give it what we think they want to hear." Ted Koppel

http://www.aarp.org/politics-society/hi ... tacks.html
User avatar
JeffN
 
Posts: 9412
Joined: Tue Jan 08, 2008 5:56 am

PreviousNext

Return to Jeff Novick, RD

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests



Welcome!

Sign up to receive our regular articles, recipes, and news about upcoming events.